Will the Internet stay up during the Pandemic

There has been a very interesting debate across the globe on the impact of the A(H1N1)v or "swine flu" Pandemic as it is commonly known on the Internet.
Well firstly we all know the Internet can't contract a virus, however what will happen when up to 40% of the workforce is at home and decides to access the Internet to work from home ???
Gartner recently commented on this and i suspect the same arguments stand in Ireland..

Organizations Should Rethink Work-at-Home Strategies for Pandemic Preparedness

STAMFORD, Conn., October 29, 2009 -- The upcoming flu season highlights the need for organizations to have pandemic plans in place, but work-at-home (WAH) strategies may be in jeopardy as residential Internet bandwidth supply may not meet demand, according to Gartner, Inc.
According to the Center for Disease Control, the rule of thumb for pandemic planning is that 40 percent of the workforce will not be in the workplace for an extended period of time. “All of the telecommunications carriers say their wide area networks (WANs) can handle the added capacity of a 40 percent increase.
That’s fine for their backbone network, but the problem lies in what is referred to as the “edge” or “last mile” in the residential Internet access loop,” said Eric Paulak, managing vice president at Gartner. “Within the switching office, surges in demand will overload the local connection to the backbone networks, because carriers typically do not design for excess residential capacity.”

WAH Internet usage for commercial purposes typically takes place in the daytime, when consumer traffic is at a lull. The problem arises during an emergency, such as a pandemic, because consumer Internet usage will be happening at the same time as WAH usage, mainly because children will be home from school (who drive the bandwidth ratios today) and, therefore, using the Internet as they would during the evening.

DSL users are vulnerable to oversubscription, a condition in which potentially dozens of users share a single digital subscriber access multiplexer (DSLAM) connection to the backbone. This is not easy to remedy during an unexpected surge in last-mile demand.

“The bottom line is that the last-mile DSL and cable modem networks are where remote access falls apart. Backbones will be affected, but the network edge will crash. The carriers are encouraging organizations to use third-generation (3G) or other nontethered access as a backup/emergency solution to defend against these last-mile failures. However, this solution could lead to wireless system overload, so the problem is not solved, it is merely moved,” said John Girard, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. “Therefore, enterprises need to consider all three Internet access solutions when trying to work out what performs best in a given emergency situation.”

Gartner suggests three possible alternatives to improve Internet bandwidth for WAH strategies:

1. When employees are forced to work from home, they lose the benefits provided by their office WAN optimization controller (WOC). Some organizations are deploying software WOC client software on every laptop to help mitigate the bandwidth and latency issues. On a congested network, a SoftWOC can make the most of the little bandwidth available with 80-90 percent reductions for many applications.
2. If it’s only necessary to accelerate browser-based applications, or if software cannot be installed on an employee's home computer, a second solution is to use client applets that work with data-center-resident application delivery controllers or WOCs. “These browser applets are zero-footprint installations (ActiveX or JavaScript) that can significantly reduce bandwidth and latency-induced performance problems and may be enough to make some employees productive,” said Joe Skorupa, research vice president at Gartner.
3. A third solution is to bypass the wired last mile altogether and switch to a wireless connection, such as 3G or WiMAX, or satellite. In contrast to these wireless offerings, new or expanded wired broadband services can take weeks to deliver under normal circumstances. However, while last-mile bypass may fix the access network problem, it won't fix the common latency-induced problems that arise during surges of unplanned emergency access. In an emergency, always assume that wireless services will be oversubscribed.

“The impact is that all the WAH strategies being implemented by organizations will likely not work,” said Roberta Witty, research vice president at Gartner. “Therefore organizations need to set up a variety of strategies for WAH including pandemic and WAH impact planning in all negotiations with network service providers, deciding in advance which business operations require heavy Internet usage and possibly staggering hours of operation to increase the chance of getting the needed bandwidth.”

Additional information is available in the Gartner report “Rethink Work-at-Home Strategies for Pandemic Preparedness: Internet Bandwidth Supply Won’t Meet Demand.” The report is available at http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=g_search&id=1189317&subref=si....

Gartner has created a Special Coverage section on gartner.com “The Pandemic Threat” where comprehensive research related to pandemic planning can be found. Gartner analysts will provide regular updates regarding actions enterprises should take as the situation evolves. The Special Coverage section can be found at http://www.gartner.com/it/products/research/coverage/pandemic09.jsp. Gartner analysts are also providing updates on the Gartner Business Continuity blog at http://blogs.gartner.com/business-continuity/.

Only 30% of Irish Business Think There is a A(H1N1)v Swine Flu Pandemic

I recently attended a seminar in Dublin on Pandemic Planning and one of the presenters asked the question of the audience "how many think there is a flu pandemic ?" about 30% of this audience of around 150 companies from all over Ireland indicated they thought there was.
Now I'm not sure if some were shy or just didn't want to participate so lets say 10% fell into this category this still leaves 60% who believed there was No Pandemic!
So I guess if they felt there was no pandemic and these people were representing their companies interest in the current A(H1N1)v Pandemic (Which by the way is a pandemic according to WHO ECDC CDC etc..)then probably they have not put any plans in place. Unless they did it before this as part of their business continuity plan. Or perhaps they feel their business continuity plan will suffice (not something I would recommend as a pandemic plan is completely different in most cases)
My hope is I am wrong and that these companies are taking this risk to their business seriously and if they haven't already put a plan in place then after the seminar they decided to do so. But what about all the other companies who didn't attend ?
If we take this small sample as indicative of Irish companies how do we get the message out there that this is a real risk and they should plan.
Interestingly the HSE was also represented at this seminar and i would say 90% of questions were asked of him and nearly all indicated the belief that the HSE will not be able to cope if this hits the expected peak.
What do you think do you believe all is well as we are led to believe by industry representatives who tell us Irish business is well prepared !!

WHO Director General States that 40 percent of the fatalities concern young adults -- in good health

PARIS (AFP) – Swine flu spreads four times faster than other viruses and 40 percent of the fatalities are young adults in good health, the world's top health official warned in an interview appearing Saturday.

"This virus travels at an unbelievable, almost unheard of speed," World Health Organisation Director General Margaret Chan told France's Le Monde daily in an interview.

"In six weeks it travels the same distance that other viruses take six months to cover," Chan said.

"Sixty percent of the deaths cover those who have underlying health problems," Chan said. "This means that 40 percent of the fatalities concern young adults -- in good health -- who die of a viral fever in five to seven days.
more on this can be seen at
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090829/hl_afp/healthfluwho_20090829132344

This is a different view than I think most will have taken up from previous statements by WHO
Comments apreciated.

IT Risk and Compliance Report

I've scanned through an interesting report by the IT Policy Compliance Group which may be of interest to you. This is their annual report which looks at IT Governance, Risk and Compliance with a view to improving business results and mitigating financial risk.

Among their findings were that that firms with the most mature practices boasted:
> 96% lower financial losses from the loss or theft of customer data
> 50% less spent on regulatory compliance annually
> 17% higher revenues
> 14% higher profits
> 18% higher customer satisfaction rates
> 17% higher customer retention levels

Interesting BBC article this morning "UN warns over swine flu in birds"

Below is an extract from the article on the BBC website
The discovery of swine flu in birds in Chile raises concerns about the spread of the virus, the UN warns.Last week the H1N1 virus was found in turkeys on farms in Chile. The UN now says poultry farms elsewhere in the world could also become infected.
Scientists are worried that the virus could theoretically mix with more dangerous strains. It has previously spread from humans to pigs.However, swine flu remains no more severe than seasonal flu.

read more http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8224923.stm

The main worry is that this could be the way that the virus mutates into a much more lethal strain and obviously it would make it very difficult to contain and control the spread of the virus around the world if it gets into the bird population.

ECDC Interim Risk Assessment A(H1N1)v 21st August 2009

I have just read this report(http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/Documents/0908_Influenza_AH1N1_Risk_Assessment.pdf) and one of the interesting tables is the planning assumptions table 2.2.8 :-
Clinical Attack Rate 30%
Complication Rate 15%
Hospitalisation Rate 2%
Case Fatality Rate .1 to .2%
Peak absense Rate 12%
The peak absense rate is without doubt the most worrying statistic for business however 15% complication rate is much higher than i have seen predicted in the past.

Do you have a Pandemic Plan for A(H1N1)v

We ran a poll a few weeks ago on our site asking who had a plan in place and surprisingly only about 15% of those who answered from Ireland said they had.
I think its probaly a bit low but still 52% said they had not the rest were from outside of Ireland.
What are your opinions on this?